What the New Trump Administration Could Mean For Your Industry

    Business people gathered around a table planning
    Tier One Agile Insights

    Posted By Tier One Agile Insights on November 08, 2024

    Topics: Social Listening and Trend Spotting, Planning

    In these first few days following the election, our Agile Insights team has been scrutinizing the news to assess potential changes a new presidential administration might bring. Organizations across multiple industries may need to adjust their playbook due to potential policy shifts, including an emphasis on deregulation and pro-business legislation, a mass restructuring of federal programs, and an escalation of tariffs on foreign imports.

    What effect might president-elect Trump’s administration have on your industry? We’ve created a cheat sheet to help you navigate these possible changes and prepare your business and communications strategies for what’s ahead:

    AI + Technology

    Potential Effects:

    A laissez-faire tech market: Trump supports deregulation across AI and tech. His campaign manifesto included a pledge to repeal President Biden’s 2023 executive order on AI, which was a first step towards regulating against multiple AI risks.

    The growth of AI: The AI sector is expected to ramp up under Trump. Though AI has not been a focus of his campaign, he’s spoken publicly about a commitment to strengthening American leadership in artificial intelligence. As Axios recently put it, “artificial intelligence will grow up in a permissive, anything-goes household, rather than under the guidance of stricter parents.”

    The Elon Effect: Elon Musk is expected to have a major say in federal tech agendas. Due to his relationship with Musk, Trump could accelerate the autonomous vehicle initiatives being spearheaded by Tesla, despite Republican pushback on electric vehicles. Musk’s political power could also affect his AI competitors, including OpenAI, which he has long been a critic of. 

    Changes to the FTC: While the FTC saw a broad new interpretation of antitrust under Biden-appointee Lina Khan, it’s likely she won’t continue in her position as the head. Khan spearheaded antitrust suits against major tech players like Amazon and Google. Khan’s FTC has also been investigating the whirlwind dealmaking of the largest AI companies, including Microsoft, OpenAI, and Nvidia. Many of these efforts are unlikely to continue under Trump, though some speculate his historically strained relationship with some tech companies could affect FTC actions.

    Trump vs. Big Tech: Despite a decrease in regulations, Trump hasn’t always supported Big Tech, accusing firms of anti-conservative bias in content moderation (especially Facebook). Trump tried to roll back parts of Section 230 during his first term, which grants social media companies immunity for user-generated content and is vital to Silicon Valley, but has been targeted by Republicans for protecting platforms that censor right-wing rhetoric.

    Resources:

    Healthcare

    Potential Effects:

    Tackling chronic illness: Trump’s health plans focus on tackling chronic illnesses. He has pledged to form a commission to probe the recent rise in chronic illnesses, examining food policy, environmental factors, federal health care agencies, and the pharmaceutical industry, and he’s recently promised to work with former presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy on the project. Trump is also planning massive restructurings of public health agencies, which could include separating the CDC into two entities, one tasked with infectious disease response and the other with chronic disease prevention. 

    Abortion is up to the states: Trump has most recently said he would veto a federal abortion ban if legislation reached his desk, leaving the power up to the states. 

    Decreasing drug prices: Trump has championed reducing drug and healthcare prices and increasing transparency around pricing, though he has not stated a clear policy.

    Changes to current national programs: Trump has vowed to protect Medicare, but Medicaid could see funding cuts or changes to eligibility, such as the imposition of work requirements. While repealing the Affordable Care Act was a focus of his first presidency, he’s indicated he does not plan to fight that fight again. Instead, it’s likely subsidies will be cut from the program, leading to premium spikes and lower enrollment, which could increase the number of uninsured Americans.

    Lack of support for LGBT+ healthcare: Trump has said he will bar federal funding for gender-affirming care and ban it entirely for minors. He plans to ban federal agencies from promoting the concept of sex and gender transition at any age.

    Religious protections: Trump has promised to protect religious freedoms in regards to healthcare, which in his first presidency included allowing certain employers to decline to cover birth control based on their religious beliefs.

    Resources:

    Energy + Climate Tech

    Potential Effects:

    Trump partners with the fossil fuel industry: Trump vowed to expand fossil fuel production, roll back environmental regulations, and eliminate federal support for clean energy. He will likely push for more oil and gas drilling on public lands, and has plans for a flurry of other actions to bolster U.S. oil and gas companies. This could include easing restrictions on the oil industry’s emissions of methane and canceling the Biden administration’s pause on permits for new liquefied natural gas export projects.

    Climate policy reversals: During his previous term in office, Trump pulled back U.S. participation in international climate diplomacy, including withdrawing from the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement. Some possible reversals during his presidency could include:

      • Ending solar and wind tax credits.
      • Withdrawing a Biden-era rule requiring large public companies to disclose climate-related risks.
      • Freezing activities of the Loan Program office, or possibly redirecting loan activity to other technologies boosting American energy independence, like nuclear, oil and gas.
      • Ending Biden-era tailpipe emissions rules that Trump has criticized as being an electric vehicle “mandate.”
      • Stepping back from global climate talks or blocking U.S. contribution to the UN’s Green Climate Fund.

    What’s likely not on the chopping block: Although Trump opposes the Inflation Reduction Act, any effort to repeal it may be unpopular even among allies, as up to $165 billion of its funding benefits Republican districts, which are home to extensive wind and solar farms, clean tech manufacturing facilities, and major green energy research and development projects that employ tens of thousands of people. While analysts speculate that the law's tax credits for consumers, including those for EVs, rooftop solar panels, and heat pumps, may end, investment incentives for wind, solar, and battery storage have so far been popular with big business, making them less subject to change.

    Energy + geopolitics: When it comes to clean energy and foreign policy, Trump supports nuclear power and domestic mining of critical minerals that can make the U.S. less reliant on China. With an increase in tariffs, the price of clean energy imports such as solar panels and electric vehicle batteries could soar, as the vast majority are manufactured outside the U.S.

    Resources:

    Cybersecurity + Privacy

    Potential Effects:

    Bipartisan support for federal cybersecurity: Cybersecurity is a bipartisan concern shared by both the Trump and current administrations, and the commitment to strengthening cybersecurity for national defense remains consistent. In 2018, Trump signed the country’s first national cybersecurity strategy in 15 years, which pushed for a more aggressive response to cyber attacks, including the use of offensive capabilities.

    Pro-business cyber + data regulations: Trump supports limited federal oversight on private-sector cybersecurity practices, and encourages R&D collaborations with tech firms for cyber defense. He opposes extensive data privacy laws, suggesting market-driven solutions, and has proposed minimal scrutiny over data handling to support innovation.

    Budget + personnel cuts: Across the board, Trump has said he is planning budget cuts and massive restructuring for federal agencies. When broad federal budget cuts are introduced, cyber and tech spending are frequently targeted first, as the immediate effect on operations is limited. Budget reductions can also create workforce risks, with the loss of technology and cybersecurity experts.

    Resources:

    Supply Chain

    Potential Effects:

    America first: Trump plans to bolster American industries that will make the U.S. less reliant on China and other foreign countries. The goal of his trade strategy is to bring back manufacturing jobs to the U.S. that have been lost to overseas competitors, particularly China. However, he does not support Biden-era regulations with the same goal, such as the CHIPS Act, which provides heavy incentives for chipmakers to set up manufacturing on U.S. soil. Instead, he’s expressed a preference for tariffs as a means of countering foreign influence.

    Trade war through tariffs: Trump's stance on international trade reflects a distrust of global markets, viewing them as counter to American interests. Trump has proposed universal baseline tariffs on most imported foreign goods, as well as the possibility to increase tariffs on countries that engage in unfair trading practices. He’s proposed tariffs of 10% to 20% on foreign goods and has mentioned even higher percentages, including 60% or higher on Chinese imports. Trump’s agenda adopts a broader, blanket approach to trade barriers compared to the Biden administration’s more targeted strategy.

    Supply chain independence: Trump has proposed restricting exports of sensitive tech like AI and semiconductors to China and seeks supply chain independence from foreign influence in the tech sector.

    Elon Musk’s influence: Elon Musk has extensive business interests in China, which could affect foreign policy due to his relationship with Trump.

    Resources:

    Financial Services

    Potential Effects:

    Scaling back the CFPB: Under the new administration, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau is likely to reverse Biden-era rules and significantly scale back its regulatory agenda, which has been increasingly active under Biden. CFPB activity will slow, and some rules could be rolled back such as one the CFPB passed earlier this year that aims to reduce the late fees consumers pay for credit card payments.

    Business-friendly regulation: The aggressive financial regulators of the Biden era will be replaced by more business-friendly agency heads. Republican regulators are expected to ease capital rules and support increased merger approvals. Key regulations are at stake for the banking sector, including those that dictate the capital large banks must maintain on their balance sheets — a framework that banks have strongly opposed — as well as rules regarding “junk fees,” which some banks have been fighting to hold onto.

    Better for banks: Banks will benefit from less stringent oversight, increasing their bottom lines. Several bank stocks saw a boost immediately following the election.

    Fintech → bank pipeline: A Trump White House could re-open the door for more fintechs to potentially obtain bank charters, a path that has been effectively closed under President Biden.

    Resources:

    It’s still early, but as with any new administration, it’s clear the winds of change are blowing. Tier One is committed to helping you stay a step ahead of the trends with timely updates on the news, expert analysis, and strategic insights that keep you informed and prepared.

    What we do: INSIGHTS + ANALYTICS
    Tier One Agile Insights

    Tier One Agile Insights

    Tier One’s Agile Insights and Analytics practice, which includes the agency’s program measurement function, identifies and predicts emerging macro trends in real time. With this knowledge, Tier One’s account teams craft strategies that authentically bring clients into the cultural conversation to boost brand awareness and keep them at the forefront.

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